New Delhi: The gross value added (GVA) the total value of goods and services produced — estimate for 2017-18 is expected to trend higher at 6.3-6.4 per cent from the projected 6.1 per cent, a State Bank of India (SBI) report said on Saturday.
The report came a day after the estimate of national income or 2017-18 released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) showed that the growth of real GVA at basic prices in 2017-18 is 6.1 per cent as against 6.6 per cent in 2016-17.
“We believe GVA estimate for current fiscal is likely to trend higher when the 2nd revision comes. The final GVA estimate could be thus 6.3-6.4 per cent or so,” the SBI Ecowrap report said.
“However, the pace of revision in GDP number will be lower than the GVA revision as the tax collection numbers for current fiscal, primarily GST may be even lower in current months reflecting lower GST rates.”
The CSO data showed that implementation of GST and subsequent slowdown in the manufacturing sector were expected to drag down the country’s growth rate to 6.5 per cent from 7.1 per cent achieved in 2016-17.
The report pointed out that lower GDP number is likely to push up fiscal deficit as percentage of GDP, higher by only a token five basis points.
It added that the estimate has a shelf-life of only two months.
“This is because CSO will release the first revised estimate of FY15, FY16 and FY17 on 31 Jan’18 and based on that today’s estimate of GDP and GVA for FY18 would be revised further as 2nd advance estimate for FY18 on 28 Feb’18 when the Q3GDP numbers will be released,” said the report.